Quantifying the impact of ultra-processed foods on global health

To what extent are ultra-processed foods contributing to global levels of chronic disease?

Ultra-processed foods (UPFs) now account for between 25% and 55% of human energy intake worldwide. But we don’t yet fully understand the health implications of this pervasive global dietary trend. 

For his Deakin Executive Dean Health Research Fellowship, Dr Tolassa Ushula is forming and leading an international research collaboration, including partners from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at University of Washington, to quantify the disease burden associated with UPF exposure. 

UPFs are widely available and industrially produced foods made from ingredients not typically found in a kitchen. Examples of UPFs may include snack foods such as chips, sweets and biscuits; soft drinks; convenience meals; sweetened breakfast cereals and fast food. UPFs have been linked to various chronic diseases such as obesity, diabetes, heart disease and cancer. The growing prevalence of UPFs raises significant concerns for both human and planetary health and presents considerable challenges for policymakers, but it’s not clear just how big the problem is.  

For this project, Dr Ushula will review existing studies to examine how UPF exposure affects specific diseases such as heart disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and depression. He will then use this evidence together with GBD data to assess the disease burden linked to UPF consumption at global, regional, and national levels.  

“Current estimates suggest UPFs account for about 22% of cardiovascular disease and 33% of all-cause premature deaths among Brazilian adults, for example,” Dr Ushula said. 

“It’s also been reported that poor diets are linked to around 22% of total deaths and 15% of disability adjusted life years (a measure of burden of disease) globally. However, these findings are based on specific food groups, rather than overall diets.  

“This project aims to provide more comprehensive estimates that reflect the growing burden of dietary share of UPFs on health outcomes. It’s possible our findings could show UPFs play a bigger role in the global burden of disease than previously estimated.”  

Dr Ushula said the study would help inform development of global and national food policies and practices for healthy and sustainable diets and food systems.  

“This work will also help shift the policy focus from estimating disease burden based on specific foods or nutrients to a whole diet approach, reflecting the influence of UPFs on dietary patterns in future GBD studies.”